Description: This research report studies the social media response to three extreme tornado outbreaks: May 22, 2011 in Joplin, MO, November 17, 2013 in Washington, IL and April 9, 2015 in Rochelle, IL. It uses Twitter data with a 14‐day period for each tornado event with a focus on a 24‐hour period surrounding the event. It starts with an overview of the data followed by analysis of geolocation, insurance related user influence, social network, and sentiment.

Description: This Effective Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) Stakeholder Engagement report examines practices for gaining acceptance of a proposed ERM strategy. The researcher has identified the factors, processes and practices that lead to both poor and strong levels of stakeholder acceptance.

Description: This article discusses how unemployment and underemployment information can help improve economic forecasts, insurance assumption setting and risk management. It summarizes the current modeling practices of unemployment which shows a deficiency of using unemployment/ underemployment information in actuarial works. It also gives three examples of using unemployment/underemployment information for economic assumption setting, new business growth prediction and stress scenarios related to the labor market.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: The Society of Actuaries Aging & Retirement Strategic Research Program and Retirement Section are pleased to make available a report that introduces predictive analytics to pension actuaries.

Description: Economic risk analysis has two dimensions: time and frequency. Asset return varies by time because of economic cycles and economic structural changes. Risk is higher during economic recessions and smaller during economic expansions. In addition, different economic structures may exist at different time scales. Risk measures calculated based on daily, weekly, monthly and yearly historical data can be very different. The appropriate frequency depends on the time horizon of the analysis. Therefore, it is important to measure economic risk at both the time level and the frequency level. However, time series analysis and statistical analysis that have been widely adopted in economic risk analysis focus on only one of the two dimensions. In this paper, wavelet models are used to enhance both time‐invariant analysis and time‐variant analysis. Wavelet models can systematically analyze risk by time and frequency and provide richer information than time series models. Using wavelet models, risk measurement can easily be adjusted based on time horizon in a consistent way. Equity VaR estimation is selected to demonstrate the application of wavelet analysis in risk management.

Description: With the credit interest rate floor of a cash balance plan—a simple type of option identified by the Project Oversight Group—as a model, this research uses three valuation and risk analysis approaches to explore the existing techniques to value embedded options on an economic basis.

Description: This article discusses challenges in achieving ERM stakeholder buy- in and ways to improve stakeholder engagement.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Committee on Finance Research is pleased to make available a research report that develops a framework for applying deep learning and reinforcement learning techniques to optimal dynamic strategic asset allocation for Liability Driven Investment (LDI).

Description: This paper explores areas where fuzzy logic models may be applied to improve risk assessment and risk decision-making. It discusses the methodology, framework and process of using fuzzy logic systems for risk management. With the help of practical examples, it is hoped that it will encourage wise application of fuzzy logic models to risk modeling.